In a recent survey, Network Solutions (a company that hosts Web sites and offer many other services) found that in 2006 some 2.5 million small and mid-sized businesses plan to create an online presence for the first time, joining the 10 million already there.

Yet according to a recent TrendWatch Graphics Arts report, the best opportunity in the next twelve months for Internet design and development firms will come, not from creating new Web sites, but from Web page maintenance; database design; Web application design; and streaming video.

New Web page design is a lowly fourth on the list.

The survey results beg the question: Where will all these small and mid-size businesses go for their Web site design? The answer lies in, excuse the phrase, the "franchisification" of the Web design business. As soon as small-business owners register names on a site such as Network Solutions or GoDaddy, they're bombarded with offers to create Web sites through online templates or by working with designers employed by these mammoth Internet services firms.

The simple Web site is being conquered by the big guys. And the days of the boutique Web designer, while not over, are as limited as Mel's Video Rental Shop in a world bursting with Blockbuster and Hollywood Video franchises.

Back-End and Flicks
The TrendWatch report suggests another important trend: the continued importance to Web design firms of back-end development skills.

"Marketing today is less about design and aesthetics and more about databases," the study authors say. "This is not to say that design and content are unimportant, or that database marketing is something new, but today the database is king. From targeted e-mail marketing to variable-data print projects, everyone wants/needs data. Despite all the hoopla about personalized printing, the fact remains that it is more effective to leverage database marketing electronically."

These aren't the only opportunities for Internet design shops. There are also the unheralded skills relating to Web-application development (e.g., Cold Fusion, PHP, ASP, JSP), that allow developers and business owners to move from static pages of fixed text and images to dynamic, data-driven Web sites. These programs allow business owners to easily collect data, and to read and write information in other applications for marketing, e-commerce, customer service, and analysis.

But the real sleeper application, and the one that's set to transform the Internet, is streaming video.

Says the TrendWatch report: "In the advertising arena, we expect further integration and cross media between broadcast/cable advertising and online advertising. As bandwidth increases and the software and hardware needed to work with digital video become less expensive and easier to use, we expect to see video turn up in more places. We fully expect that video and other forms of rich media, such as Flash animation, will play an even larger role in 'traditional' advertising and design work."

These findings may not be news to many of you, but there are plenty of Web developers still living in a static Web-page world who don't yet realize that it is a passing era.

Drawing Conclusions
What conclusion can you draw from these trends, and how should you proceed?

If your skills in the world of Web design are limited to the graphic stylings that make a Web page pretty, your choices are to continue to work with a small number of existing clients on Web maintenance and battle the big companies for new clients; to partner with someone who can provide the database, application, and video expertise you can't; or to learn the back-end apps driving Web development today.

If you have these talents in house, the challenge is to recalibrate your marketing materials and strategic business plan to leverage your skills and reposition yourself as a true integrator of Web applications, databases, and video.

More Findings
There's something to be said about scientific surveys: They often dispel the common myths surrounding an industry. The consensus on the street is that Web design firms are still in the doldrums caused by the dot.com fallout. (Seems like a long time ago, doesn't it?) In reality, Web design firms are doing quite well, according to TrendWatch's recent report on Internet design and development firms, portions of which are available online.

The study found that 25 percent of Internet design and development firms say business conditions are "excellent," and 57 percent say business conditions are "OK, about the same." That means that 77 percent of firms report excellent or good business.

Only 13 percent report business conditions as "poor and not as good as the previous year," while 5 percent lament that business conditions are "very bad, much worse than the previous year."

Internet firms are cautiously optimistic, as well. Twenty-eight percent said they expect business to be excellent next year, and 61 percent expect business to be about the same.

Nine percent of firms said they expect business to be poor, and 2 percent expect business next year to be "very bad."

The study also found that firms are worried about the economy. "Worries about economic conditions" topped the list of challenges in the next 12 months, followed by concerns over what direction their business should take.

So there's still uncertainty in the industry, but one thing is clear. Integration and video, not design, will drive tomorrow's revenue.

Read more by Eric J. Adams.